This is archived content, written April 2019, replaced by our current assessment, September 2019.
April 2019
The EU agreed on 11 April to extend the deadline for Brexit.
Britain remains a full EU-member and Kixto’s European shipping services will be completely unaffected until there is a confirmed date for Brexit.
Britain remains a full EU-member and Kixto’s European shipping services will be completely unaffected until there is a confirmed date for Brexit.
Kixto is nimble and can react fast where necessary.
18 April, Kixto’s prediction in two lines:
Our view is unchanged from March: we think Britain’s trade with Europe will continue almost unaffected until 2021 and, after then, changes will be modest.
More fully
In June 2016, Britain voted to leave the European Union. In March 2017, Parliament gave the EU two years’ notice that we would leave on 29 March, 2019.
The executive branches of the UK and EU then negotiated a “Withdrawal Agreement” that was a plan for negotiating a new trade deal, with 1 January 2021 as the planned switch-over date. However, Parliament has steadfastly rejected the Withdrawal Agreement. With no plan in place, the leaving date was delayed until 31 October, 2019.
Britain remains a full member of the EU until it officially leaves. That date has been moved into the future and the UK government is now trying to find a solution that Parliament will agree. In an indicative votes process, a customs union had most support but the government has so far ruled this out.
The UK will vote in European elections in late May. The results will be a good indicator of current voter opinion and we expect Parliament will avoid making concrete decisions until after the results are in.
Kixto’s opinion
The final outcome, in order of probability, will be one of:
- Parliament finally accepts the Withdrawal Agreement. If this happens, Britain will continue trading with the EU on current terms until 2021 at least.
- The UK proposes an alternative plan that has majority support within Parliament. A confirmation referendum or a customs union are the possibilities with most support currently, the European elections will add more information.
- Britain leaves without a deal. In a non-binding vote (13 March, 2019) Parliament rejected this, though it remains possible.
While “No deal” cannot be ruled out, we think is a very unlikely outcome. Either of the alternative options, a Withdrawal Agreement or some other agreement, has more support in Parliament and both options would leave our access to the EU unchanged until 2021, with lots of notice of the new trading arrangements that will come into effect after then
